And if these were to be subject to tariffs. Forgive my stubbornness about this, but we are still one UK and Parliament should decide how things are done in our country. They even want to decide how we should spend our own taxes on state aid. All this nonsense isn’t just about getting the best economic deal for the EU, it’s about making an example of what happens to a Member State that refuses to play any longer, that wants to determine its own fate.
My contention is that the future of the EU is inevitably linked to its economic success and that things are not going well on this front. It has become increasingly protectionist, an economically failing customs bloc.
The EU’s share in world GDP has already fallen to just 16% from 30% in 1980 (normalized for current members), and the trend is downward. The EU is not a democratic institution.
He believes in centralizations rather than in freedom. Its parliament is prohibited from making laws while the unelected executive imposes decisions, regulations and directives.
Today the UK is at the forefront of the internet revolution and a whole new model of economic power that has evolved since we joined the EU.
Now that we are outside the EU, we can truly embrace global trade rather than relying on an outdated and failing business model that inherently favors countries like Germany. Our jobeficit in goods is a watering of 107.9 billion pounds sterling (ONS May 2020).
This is really not surprising because the current agreement strongly favors the markets for goods over the markets for services. Guess what has been the real growth market for the UK over the past two decades? Yes, services.
Fortunately, we have positioned ourselves to capitalize on where most of the growth of the next two decades is likely to occur, anywhere except Europe, and where much of the wealth will be generated to finance the investment projects the world needs, including those in the indebted EU.
In these economically difficult times, this leaves key EU members in a weak position – they lack the capacity to secure new trade deals in a timely manner to bolster their vital export activities, which are key drivers. of their savings. Take Italy …
In Italy there is growing disapproval of the EU, in a recent survey 42% of people said they would leave the EU, up from 26% in 2018 (BBC). This disapproval will be further fueled by a rising debt-to-GDP ratio that will rise to over 150%.
There is no doubt that their economy will be unable to resume growth if they do not have the flexibility to make substantial changes to their economy, combined with the freedom to explore new markets.
Italy currently has a UK trade surplus with the UK of £ 9.6 billion (July 2020). It is therefore in Italy’s interest that a trade agreement be concluded. If the EU continues to block a future trade deal with the UK, this could fuel a catalyst for member states to start exploring bilateral deals with the UK.
Italy and other Member States face many challenges: the migrant crisis, rising debt and faltering economies and the fact that the EU turned its back on Italy in the last crisis (only 4% of Italians cited the EU as a most useful ally during the darker days of the Covid crisis according to the Guardian).
Could this lead Italy to explore the option of economic freedom outside the EU and follow the UK’s lead?
There is no doubt that the Commission would seek to block such initiatives, although it has no democratic mandate to do so.
This would highlight the legacy of the Commission’s failure to reach trade deals for its members. For economically vulnerable countries that depend on trade for their recovery, this will reinforce growing Euroscepticism among voters.
As Euroscepticism grows across Europe, nation states like Italy should not fear the prospect of opening up to the global economy.
Just as the UK has done, it should trust its comparative advantages and unleash them in global markets rather than relying on a stagnant economic bloc, which is choking its own economies and holding back developing countries.
Countries like Italy should gain confidence and push at least for bilateral deals with the UK if the EU does not negotiate a reasonable deal with the UK; it would be wise for the EU to strike a deal, but the Commission rarely acts to protect its most vulnerable members.